Beat the Market: An Effective Intraday Momentum Strategy for S&P500 ETF (SPY)


This paper investigates a simple yet effective intraday momentum strategy for SPY, a highly liquid ETF tracking the S&P500. Unlike typical studies that limit trading to the last 30 minutes, our model initiates trades based on intraday demand/supply imbalances. Using techniques from active day traders and dynamic trailing stops, the strategy achieved a 1,985% total return (net of costs), 19.6% annualized return, and a 1.33 Sharpe Ratio from 2007 to early 2024. We analyze its performance across market volatility regimes, day-of-the-week effects, and compare it to other technical patterns, considering the impact of commissions and slippage.

A Profitable Day Trading Strategy For The U.S. Equity Market

A Profitable Day Trading Strategy For The U.S. Equity Market Paper

This paper examines the effectiveness of the 5-minute Opening Range Breakout (ORB) strategy for day trading U.S. stocks, focusing on its performance from 2016 to 2023. It highlights the advantages of trading “Stocks in Play,” which are highly active due to significant news, demonstrating how they significantly outperform regular stocks. Our comprehensive analysis, the first of its kind, details the strategy’s returns across various time frames and provides specific data on the top and bottom 25 performers.

Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) The Holy Grail for Day Trading Systems

VWAP Paper

This paper examines a VWAP-based day trading strategy using QQQ and TQQQ from January 2018 to September 2023. It demonstrates how this strategy significantly outperforms the passive buy-and-hold approach, turning a $25,000 investment into $192,656 with QQQ and $2,085,417 with TQQQ. The strategy shows robust returns with lower risk, illustrating VWAP’s effectiveness in diverse market conditions.

Can Day Trading Really Be Profitable?

This paper analyzes the Opening Range Breakout (ORB) strategy in day trading from 2016 to 2023, including during volatile market conditions. It compares the performance of an ORB strategy using QQQ and leveraged ETFs like TQQQ against a passive QQQ investment. Results show that the ORB strategy, even with leverage constraints, significantly outperformed passive investing, yielding a 1,484% return compared to 169% for QQQ, demonstrating its potential for high returns in day trading.