Papers

This study evaluates the effectiveness of technical analysis in trading, particularly in how it enhances the performance of a simple automatic trading strategy. We simulate a trading environment where a skilled technical trader guides the strategy to focus on stocks with promising charts, especially those with significant overnight gaps. The trader also micromanages open positions by analyzing daily and intraday price actions. The findings indicate that skilled discretionary technical trading can significantly improve trading outcomes, providing empirical support for combining systematic and discretionary approaches in financial markets.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4879527

This study examines the profitability of a long-only trend-following portfolio across 48 industry sectors from 1926 to 2024. The analysis demonstrates the model’s effectiveness through its 18.5% average annual return, significantly outperforming the US equity market’s 9.7% return. The Timing Industry strategy not only offers higher returns but also reduced volatility and drawdowns, achieving a Sharpe Ratio of 1.46. We also analyze the performance using 31 sector ETFs over the past 20 years, confirming the strategy’s robustness and profitability even after accounting for trading costs.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4857230

This paper investigates a simple yet effective intraday momentum strategy for SPY, a highly liquid ETF tracking the S&P500. Unlike typical studies that limit trading to the last 30 minutes, our model initiates trades based on intraday demand/supply imbalances. Using techniques from active day traders and dynamic trailing stops, the strategy achieved a 1,985% total return (net of costs), 19.6% annualized return, and a 1.33 Sharpe Ratio from 2007 to early 2024. We analyze its performance across market volatility regimes, day-of-the-week effects, and compare it to other technical patterns, considering the impact of commissions and slippage.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4824172

This paper examines the effectiveness of the 5-minute Opening Range Breakout (ORB) strategy for day trading U.S. stocks, focusing on its performance from 2016 to 2023. It highlights the advantages of trading “Stocks in Play,” which are highly active due to significant news, demonstrating how they significantly outperform regular stocks. Our comprehensive analysis, the first of its kind, details the strategy’s returns across various time frames and provides specific data on the top and bottom 25 performers.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4729284

This paper explores the use of the Martingale system in financial scams, tracing the evolution of fraud from coin clipping to Ponzi schemes. It uses statistical analysis to show how these scams falsely promise high returns, aiming to help investors and regulators recognize and prevent such tactics.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4678427

This paper examines a VWAP-based day trading strategy using QQQ and TQQQ from January 2018 to September 2023. It demonstrates how this strategy significantly outperforms the passive buy-and-hold approach, turning a $25,000 investment into $192,656 with QQQ and $2,085,417 with TQQQ. The strategy shows robust returns with lower risk, illustrating VWAP’s effectiveness in diverse market conditions.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4631351

This paper analyzes the Opening Range Breakout (ORB) strategy in day trading from 2016 to 2023, including during volatile market conditions. It compares the performance of an ORB strategy using QQQ and leveraged ETFs like TQQQ against a passive QQQ investment. Results show that the ORB strategy, even with leverage constraints, significantly outperformed passive investing, yielding a 1,484% return compared to 169% for QQQ, demonstrating its potential for high returns in day trading.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4416622